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Obasanjo:
An Exit Strategy
By
Reuben Abati
culled from GUARDIAN, May 12,
2006
The President's political
strategists, faced with the widespread opposition to the now infamous third
term agenda, are reportedly working on what the media has termed "Plan B".
The original plan was meant to ensure an amendment of the 1999 Constitution
to offer the President an additional period of four years in office. The
on-going debate of that proposition in the National Assembly indicates that
it will be difficult for the "third termers" to gain a legislative
two-thirds majority in that regard. Plan B is designed as a face-saving
option.
The failure of the third term
proposal on the floor of the National Assembly translates simply into an
open demonisation of the President and his supporters. The President in
particular, has suddenly become an enemy of democracy who must be
stopped at all costs. A Plan B which, as proposed, would offer him a
two-year extension in office as President could reduce the effect of
this open disgrace. Its architects obviously do not want the Presidency
to be ridiculed. They can pretend that their plan is to protect the
Presidency as a key democratic institution.
What Baba's political
strategists should be working on however as Plan B is an exit
strategy. There is no difference between their Plan A and the
present Plan B as reported in the media. Any attempt to manipulate
the Constitution to give advantage to the President, and to the
President alone, phrased in whatever idiom, would continue to unite
the opposition, and sharpen the edges of criticisms against the
President. There are two basic laws of power at play. One, a leader
must never isolate himself. An isolated man is fatally vulnerable.
He is without any walls of defence. On the third term question, the
President has definitely made the mistake of isolating himself. For
more than a year, he made ambivalent statements about his intentions
only for him to emerge at the last minute, to be the main architect
of the third term agenda. How different it could have been, if it
were the ordinary people of Nigeria, asking out of appreciation, for
a continuation of the Obasanjo era?
The people of Nigeria
are not the owners of the third term agenda but they do not
necessarily hate Obasanjo. On the contrary, they are fond of
him. They remain so in spite of the exposure of the President's
flaw of character. The people cannot understand why a man who
has been so blessed, who is obviously a product of luck and
destiny, would tempt fate so brazenly. The ordinary man is
opposed to third term politics not because he has been listening
to the media, or to the opposition, or to third term debaters in
the National Assembly but because he pities Obasanjo. Every hero
in time becomes a parody; but only those heroes who allow their
character flaws to dominate their personality.
In eight years,
if President Obasanjo and his strategists had managed to
establish a reputation of benevolence, perhaps the
support-base for third term would have been broader. That
would not make it right, it may still not succeed, but the
associated public debate would have produced a more rigorous
and kinder assessment of Obasanjo's tenure than the
platitudes being mouthed at the National Assembly. The
President has also further isolated himself by uniting the
opposition against himself. Even within the PDP, he stands
alone, otherwise it should have been easy for a PDP-dominated
National Assembly to endorse the third term proposal without
any rancour. The present situation exposes the President's
weakness. The debate in the National Assembly is a
reflection of his standing in his own political party.
The second
law of power at play is: a leader must know when to
quit. He must know when to give up. Power is about being
a good student of human psychology. Before now, the
President had been told that the third term agenda was
being opposed by only a handful of journalists. But the
opposition to third term now goes beyond the media. Even
the President's supporters are afraid to speak up for
him in public. It is curious (not so?) that even his own
Ministers (those who are benefiting from his government)
have all cleverly withdrawn into their shells.
Conveniently, they would claim that they are
professionals in political office, not politicians. They
are so concerned about their own future and reputation,
they do not want to be dragged down along with the
President. Each one of them is playing safe.
Let the
President organise a public debate on the Third Term
agenda among his own Ministers and Special Advisers,
in the full view of television cameras, with every
sound and word recorded. He would be surprised that
there are not too many of those men and women who
would be willing to queue up behind him. And should
the President succeed with the Third term agenda, he
can only succeed in creating a crisis. If he wins an
election, his government would have problems of
legitimacy. That future Obasanjo government would be
challenged endlessly by the opposition. Obasanjo
would have unwittingly energised the civil society
coalition, and so many groups and individuals would
take advantage of his failures to assert their own
relevance. Already, third term politics is selling
newspapers and magazines! It is making television
more exciting. It is lending voice to persons who
had hitherto lost relevance.
The
only man who cannot afford to laugh at his own
parody is President Obasanjo. The only way the
third agenda can be forced through is for the
President to sack the National Assembly and that
he cannot do. Every option therefore leads to a
moral and political cul de sac. Obasanjo's
strategists must return to the drawing table.
Let them begin to work out an exit strategy. The
purpose of that exit strategy should be
three-fold: (i) to rescue the President from
contempt (ii) to re-define and preserve his
legacy and image and (iii) to protect him out of
power from an emerging process of
demystification.
President Obasanjo's place in history lies
in part, in the fact that up till now, he
was one of Nigeria's most respected leaders.
In 1998, he was head-hunted for the job of
President. He was seen as the man who would
help stabilise Nigeria, and raise the
country's profile. Persons went to his homes
in Ota and Abeokuta to beg him to come and
lead Nigeria. He gave conditions. He had
never been a politician. Politicians who had
set up platforms handed over their
constituencies to him. He did not have
money. Fund-raisers came to his rescue.
Those who had office spaces donated
campaign centres. Owners of hotels
offered their rooms to the campaign
office. Today, he has offended the same
men who did this, so much they are all
abusing him. His Vice President, Atiku
Abubakar has become a sworn enemy.
General T.Y. Danjuma , his former friend
and Defence Minister describes the third
term proposal as "evil".
Internationally, Obasanjo was regarded
as a world statesman. He was the first
military leader in Africa to hand over
power willingly to civilian successors.
Today, America, Russia, and other
countries are unsure about their old
friend.
The total destruction of the
Obasanjo persona is a disaster that
the President's strategists must not
allow to happen. The first plank of
an exit strategy is for the
President to come out openly, and
disown the third term process and
insist that even if the Constitution
is so amended, he, Obasanjo does not
intend to benefit from it. He should
issue a strong statement defending
the integrity of the office that he
holds and his commitment to his oath
of office. His critics and opponents
would claim victory for this. But he
would have put an end, summarily to
their contempt and restored the
moral strength of the Presidency.
Once he shoots down the third term
agenda, he would immediately become
the darling of those who would like
to succeed him. He may have been
wounded but the opposition should be
smart enough to realise that a
wounded lion is a carnivorous animal
still. Thus, the exit strategy that
we propose must begin with Obasanjo
himself.
How, then does he protect his
legacy? His strategists would
first have to define what that
legacy is. In the face of "third
term politics", the Obasanjo
persona has been reduced to the
level of some of the odious
figures in African political
history: Abacha, Mobutu etc.
Africans find it easy to compare
situations. They find it easier
and fulfilling to celebrate the
downfall of heroes. Shorn of the
baggage of Third Term, the
President will have to befriend
the Nigerian people anew. He is
still in a position to make
amends. Let him embark on
farewell tours across the
country, and attend send-forth
parties. Let him be seen
physically relocating to Ota and
Abeokuta. Let him begin to speak
as a statesman and not as a
Presidential contestant. His
strategists can then use the
opportunity to remind Nigerians
of the achievements of his
administration in the last eight
years. There must be things that
they can talk about. But let
them not mention power supply,
please.
The third strategy would be
how to protect the President
out of power. In eight
years, the President has
acquired lorry-loads of
enemies who would like to
ridicule him when he is no
longer in office. The third
term agenda is driven mostly
by fear. There is a lesson
in this respect for all men
of power. Not too many
Nigerians in positions of
authority remember tomorrow.
This is why they end up
turning their position into
shields of protection. The
President and his supporters
have been quoted as saying
if he leaves office in 2007,
a future government could
reverse the reform process;
squander the country's
foreign reserves, and
empower present opponents of
the government. They are
also afraid that those who
can possibly succeed Baba,
and are parading themselves
as loyalists, may actually
be double agents who may
become treacherous tomorrow.
They are also driven by a
deep-seated fear of Atiku.
They don't want him anywhere
near Aso Villa in 2007. The
best form of protection that
they all need however is
counselling. In the end,
this country is bigger than
any individual. If in eight
years, President Obasanjo
has not been able to groom a
successor or possible
successors, the joke is on
him, not Nigerians. But he
needs not fear what tomorrow
would bring. One of the
hallmarks of democracy is
the right to make mistakes.
He should be more concerned
about his place in history.
If anything has been
gained, however, in the
last week, the third
term debates in the
National Assembly have
shown us the quality of
men and women in the
legislature. Parliament
is traditionally a place
for the display of
reason and elocution.
How on earth, did we
vote for these
characters who lack
debating skills, these
men who can hardly
express themselves? A
review of the quality of
the debates so far is an
open embarrassment to
the entire country, a
sad comment on Nigeria's
education system which
has produced these
shallow-brained and mis-educated
parliamentarians we have
been watching on
television. It wasn't
this bad in the First
and Second Republics.
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