Sir,

ARE YOU SERIOUS ABOUT NEEDS,
MR PRESIDENT?

Mr President, are you serious about NEEDS? Are you serious about putting in place a National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy, which you will diligently pursue in the next three years to uplift our country’s economy? Or, are you just trying to use this NEEDS to bamboozle Nigerians, and dupe the rest of the world?

2. Deception has been part of your military training. It has been part of your battlefield experiences. As a successful battlefield commander, you know how to signal that you are deploying your troops westwards, while you are actually deploying them eastwards, or you are just staying put. You know how to indicate that you are going to retreat, while you are actually going to attack. Is all this NEEDS just a part of such a manoeuvre? Is it just a smokescreen? Is it just a camouflage? Or, is it a serious attempt at putting in place, what you sincerely be-lieve to be, a coherent and comprehensive way forward for the badly battered economy of our country?

National Planning

3. In your speech at the launching of NEEDS, at what was called the National Stakeholders Consultations, on Monday, 15th March 2004 , at Abuja , you appealed against cynicism. I am not being cynical here. I cannot afford the luxury of cynicism. I am one of those who have been looking forward to our governments to come forward with a national development plan for the whole country. Whether one agrees with the plan, or, strategy, or, whatever you want to label it, is not important. What is important is that, there is a deliberate, and thought – out, attempt, by the governments of Nigeria , to take the country somewhere. Secondly, it is important that, the governments commit themselves to, an officially and publicly de-fined, plan of action over a number of years. This plan provides a definite and tangible basis for supporting, or, opposing, the governments, or just seeking to correct them, and for making them accountable in a holistic and regular way, and not in an adhoc and eclectic way. Without such a national plan, the whole basis for relating to governments is reduced to patronage, personalities, and to ethnic, subethnic, religious, and other sectarian affiliations.

4. Obviously, no one can, responsibly, govern a country, give leadership to a com-munity, or, even serve as the head of a family, without having a plan for the future. This country has been ruled, for over twenty years, without a national development plan. That is, since 31st December 1983 , when the military overthrew the civilian regime and threw the Fourth National Development Plan: 1981 –1985, out of the window. Successive regimes went through the exercises of formulating a ‘rolling plan’, a ‘vision plan’ and what you chose to call ‘Obasanjo’s economic directions’, on your second coming. But, none of this took the place of the previous four national development plans, or gave the three tiers of government, and the private sector, in the country, a common framework for even heading together in roughly the same direction.

5. So, when I heard that you are going to come out with a strategy for national economic development, for a medium-term of three years, which involves the state and local governments, I thought that at last we are getting somewhere. I really looked forward to its coming out, and did not care whether it actually came from you, or, only in – care of you, from the Paris Club, the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO, Mr Soros, or even from George.W.Bush.

Endorsements and Consultations

6. But, when I obtained and studied the document formally setting out of this proposed strategy for national economic em-powerment and development, which you launched in Abuja, on the 15th of March, 2004,and which officials of the Presidency and the National Planning Commission have been sending out asking for comments and suggestions, I was really surprised, by its contents and presentation. I was baffled by the claims about its ‘ownership’ and endorsements on page 5, that:

“Although NEEDS is essentially a federal government programme, it is fully owned by Nigerians. The President and his cabinet fully endorse the programme; the National Assembly and the National Economic Council (NEC), which comprises all the 36 governors of the states, have also en-dorsed the programme. Various private sector stakeholders, NGOs and Civil Society organisations have also endorsed the NEEDS.”

That is why I am writing this letter to you. For, if, as Nigerians we already fully own this programme, and it has already received the endorsement from all the organs of government with the constitutional authority to formulate and implement it, and from the private sector and civil society organisations, why all this running around by your officials to arrange consultations over it, all over the country, and in such great hurry? That is why I want to find out if you really, and seriously, intend to use this NEEDS to uplift the economy of this country, or if you are just using it as an exercise in deception, as a manoeuvre and as a camouflage. These, naturally come to you from your training and experience as a seasoned military officer. I am asking this question for these and some other very simple reasons.

7. And the other reasons are, that you have held high public office in this country for thirty seven years, in military and civilian capacities. You have served as the Head of State, and Commander –in – Chief of the Armed Forces of our country, twice, for nine of these thirty seven years. You have attended, in your governmental and non governmental capacities, more, national, African, and international, policy – making meetings, than all the other ten Nigerian Heads of State put together. You should know all there is to know about public policy formulation, including the standards of contents, articulation, and presentation, expected of policy documents, even at the drafting stage.

Below Minimum Standards

8. You must have, before endorsing it, read, the 172 page document, titled, Nigeria : National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy, which you launched at the Ladi Kwali Hall of the Sheraton Hotel, Abuja , in the morning of Monday, 15th March, 2004 . Why did you endorse it? Why did you get the Federal Executive Council, the National Economic Council and the National Assembly to endorse it? And after all these endorsements, why did you launch it and ordered the organisation of nationwide stakeholders consultations on it, when it must have been obvious to you, given your education, training and experience, that, as a draft of a policy document it is below the minimum standards required, for a proposal of a strategy for national economic empowerment and development to be pursued by the three tiers of government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
9. You cannot fail to have noticed that this draft document fails to propose any strategy for national economic empowerment and development. It contains no strategy, no coherent plan of action which to endorse, launch and hold nation wide consultations upon. It is a bundle of confusion in its conceptualisations, use of data and organisation. Its language is turgid, it is written in a verbose style and filled with platitudes, cliches and repetitions. You must have seen all this. So, why did you not, after reading it, before endorsing it, send it back and ask for a serious and competent draft by the numerous economic and policymaking experts in your Economic Team and in the various ministries of your government?

10. In the first place, this document is incoherent, inconsistent, and often downright incorrect, in its use of key concepts, including its central concept of ‘strategy’ and the core concepts of, ‘policy’, ‘programme’, ‘instrument’, ‘goals’, ‘targets’ and ‘principles.’ This has resulted in pervasive confusion, all over the document, between, for example, the objectives to be attained, the general and specific measures to be taken to attain them, and the devices and organs to be used to implement these measures. When a government cannot distinguish between its objectives, the measures to take to attain these objectives, and the devices to use to implement these measures, then obviously its actions will be confused and convoluted.

11. Secondly, the appraisal of the economic and social conditions and trends in Nigeria, and affecting Nigeria, at the starting point of the implementation of the strategy, is not realistic, it is incomplete, in parts evasive; and is so muddled up. It is not even clear whether take off point of this strategy is 1999, or whether it is 2004. Thirdly, the objectives, goals and targets of the strategy, are arrived at in an arbitrary fashion, without logically and systematically, deriving them from the projected changes in existing economic trends, as a result of the pursuit of the strategy, and the distinctive way this strategy should harness resources and enhance capacities.

12. Fourthly, the types of linkages between the various sectors of the economy, which are specific to it, at its present level of development, which are crucial in determining whether the economy retards, stagnates, or grows, are virtually ignored, and each sector is treated as if it stands on its own, facing, what is called, global competition. The feedback cycles and the intersectoral dynamics of the economy, crucial for take-off and sustained growth are not even recognised. Fifthly, the specific means by which the three tiers of government should work together for the achievement of agreed and defined targets in each sector and subsector of the economy are not specified, only asserted in the most generalised way, in spite of the great prominence given to the false claim that, this NEEDS is the first attempt to coordinate the economic policies of the three tiers of government in this country.

Flawed Conceptualisation

13. Let us take these five major flaws in this draft document one – by – one, starting with the incorrect, incoherent and inconsistent use of key concepts, including the central concept of “strategy”. Since this document is supposed to be a proposal for a national economic empowerment and development strategy, it has to, first and foremost, be based on a correct, coherent, and consistent conception of what is meant by “strategy”. It also has to be based on correct, coherent and consistent conceptions of other key concepts, which operationalise strategy, such as, policy, programme, and instrument. But, this is not the case. On the pages, where “strategy” features, or “strategies” are listed, strategy is incorrectly conceived as meaning, a particular line of action, or particular policies and programmes, which, even a first year undergraduate knows, it is not. To confound matters further, policies, programmes, and instruments, are used as if they mean the same thing and most often are all reduced to woolly and amorphous statements of intentions. The extent of vagueness and generalisation is made worse by the way the documents avoids proposing specific and definite objectives for each sector, sub-sector, and each sphere of government activity, and instead hides behind the wishy-washy terms of “policy thrusts” and “policy directions” and “programme thrusts”. We even find on page 35 the meaningless term, “policy strategies.” What on earth can this mean? What on earth does it mean, for example, to list, on page 35, as “policy strategies/instruments”, the reforms of, the budget process, the reforms of taxation, and the reforms of the procurement process? Are these policies? Are these strategies? Are they instruments? Or, are they all these three lumped together?

14. Let us be very clear as to what the terms, which are so much confused in this document mean. A strategy, for example, is not the same thing as a policy. A strategy is a plan for the pursuit of a coordinated range of policies, specifically directed at the attainment of clearly defined objectives, over the whole of a specific sphere of action, within a particular period of time. It is different and distinct from policies, programmes, objectives, goals, and targets, or the instruments for attaining these. A policy is a planned course of action for the attainment of definite objectives in a specific sphere of action. A programme, on the other hand, is a series of specific measures planned for the implementation of the whole, or part of a policy, within a particular time frame. While an instrument, in this context, is a device, an organ, and a means, for the implementation of policy. These constitute components of strategy. Strategy is broader and operates at higher levels of planning and action, determining and subjecting all policies, all programmes, and all instruments to the attainment of its objectives.

Contradictory Positions

15. There is nowhere, in the whole of this document, where a national economic empowerment and development strategy for Nigeria is set out. But, this document, bearing that title, and purporting to set out this strategy, has already been endorsed at the highest level of government and launched by, you, the President! What is going on, Mr. President? What did you endorse? What did you launch? What exactly are you asking stakeholders in Nigeria to hold consultations on? Even for the various sectors of the economy, are you aware that there is, in this document you endorsed and launched, a great deal of confusion as to whether, or, not, sectoral strategies have been formulated, or have not been formulated. On pages 69, 73, 77-78, 79-80, 86-88,101-103, and 103-104, of the document, what are called “strategies” for the seven core sectors of transport, water, agriculture, manufacturing, oil and gas, education and health, are, set out.

16. Yet, in the introduction to Chapter Eight, the chapter titled, “Specific Sectoral Strategies”, it is stated in the first paragraph, on the first page of the chapter, that is page 75, that, sectoral strategies have not yet been formulated but are being developed. This is quite categorically stated, in the following words:

“The Federal Government ministries, their state counterparts and the private sector stakeholders are in the process of developing sector-wide strategies for each of the sectors. These sector strategies will emphasise national coordination with clearly delineated roles and responsibilities for each of the tiers of government, the private sector and other stakeholders. These sector strategies, together with the sector projects, will form a necessary annex to the NEEDS document”.

This is, however, flatly contradicted just below, on the same page, in the fourth paragraph, where it is stated that:
“ It is in this context that the various sector strategies are couched, first by identifying some of the peculiar sector specific issues, policy imperatives and then the selected strategies.”

Which is which? Are the sector strategies yet to be developed? Or have they already been developed? If they have not been developed, then what are these items listed as “strategies” for seven of the core sectors of the economy, on pages 69, 73, 77-78, 79-80, 86-88,101-103, and 103-104?

Transport

17. The confusion, and the state of mental disarray, exhibited in this document, which you endorsed and launched, come out more clearly, when we examine these so-called “strategies” for these seven sectors of the economy. For the transport sector we have, on page 68-69:
“Strategies”

Review existing legislation and institutional framework and provide incentives for private sector participation in inland waterways and other sectors

Create a window for funding the aviation industry to ensure modernization and safety standards through the Bank of Industry

Transform the Nigerian Railways through rehabilitation and modernization

Commercialize the non-real assets of the railways as a source of raising funds to finance a viable and efficient railway transportation network with private participation

Provide Road Maintenance Agency sufficient capacity to undertake rehabilitation and maintenance of federal roads.”
Here we have five “strategies” proposed for the transport sector, none of which is a strategy, a policy, or a programme. Mr. President, how can a military officer of your training, rank and experience, and a Head of State and President for nine years, of one of the most populous countries in the world, who is expected to know what strategy, is, in military and civil matters, endorse the adequate funding of the Road Maintenance Agency as a strategy? Is this not what every Federal Government is obliged to do under the relevant laws of this country?

Electric Power

18. Surprisingly, no “strategies” are set out for what is called “The Power Sector” (Electricity Supply), treated on pages 69 – 72. What explains this very significant omission? This sector has received the highest allocation of Federal Government capital expenditure since 1999, and still does. And in many states, rural electrification is also a significant item in the capital budget. So how can there be no “strategies” for its development, when it is basic to almost all other sectors? Is it because this high level of expenditure is being sunk into electricity supply without any policies and strategy?

Water Supply

19.On page 72-73 the “strategies” for the water supply sector are set out as:
“Strategies”
To achieve government’s policy objectives, the following strategies would be adopted:

Develop and implement a system of quality assurance consistent with WHO standards especially the completion of hydro geological mapping of the country and the establishment of water quality laboratories;

Agriculture

20. On pages 76-78, the “strategies” for
the agricultural sector are set out as follows:
“Strategies”
To achieve these targets, the following strategies will be employed

1 Vigorous implementation of the Presidential Initiatives on Cassava, Rice, Vegetable oil, sugar, livestock, tree crops and cereals. Under this initiative, Nigeria hopes to generate as much as N3 billion annually from the export of agricultural products.

2 Taking advantage of the various concessionary arrangements within the WTO, EUACP, and the AGOA, NEPAD and the huge market in the West African Region sub region

3 Strengthening of agricultural research and revitalization of the agricultural training and streamlining the extension delivery system including the involvement of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and opinion leaders in extension delivery through capacity building and promotion of improved technologies that are appropriate to the needs of farmers

4 A review of the agricultural input supply and distribution system with a view to developing effective and sustainable private sectorb led input supply and distribution system.

5 Promotion of integrated rural development involving agricultural and non-agricultural activities and including the provision of physical infrastructure such as feeder roads, rural water supply, rural communications etc.

6 Encouraging states to develop projects of model rural communities and farm settlement adequately provided with feeder roads, boreholes, vocational training, simple farm tools and equipment, alternative energy source and communication centres for a wholesome life to reduce rural-urban drift

7 Adequate capitalization of the Nigerian Agricultural, Cooperative and Rural Development Bank (NACRDB) to provide soft agricultural credit and rural finance; the NACRDB has been restructured and its mandate expanded to include full financial intermediation

8 Refurbishment of the eight functional silo complexes and phased completion of the remaining ones to improve and in-crease the capacity of the food reserve programme as a step to food security. These would be leased out to farmers either on individual or group basis

9 Promotion of joint venture private sector managed multi commodity development and marketing companies to guarantee remunerative prices for farmers, stabilize consumer prices and provide alternative market for farm produce through buyer-of-last-resort mechanism

10 Promotion of all season farming through rain fed and irrigated farming with emphasis on fadama agriculture as well as implementation of the programme for the massive production of tree crop seedlings.”

Manufacturing

21. On pages 78-80, the “strategies” for the manufacturing sector are set out as follows:

“Strategies”

In order to turnaround the dwindling fortunes of the manufacturing (including SMEs) sector, government’s focus in this sector would be guided by the following measures:

(i). Removal of infrastructural constraints on SMEs and expedite action on establishment of the clusters and industrial parks. These critical ingredients to increasing the participation of the private sector will be targeted at “growth poles.”

(ii) Provision of appropriate institutional support: undertaking studies aimed at attracting foreign investors, scanning, overseas markets and monitoring developments that have implications for the sector. SMEDAN will be provided with appropriate infrastructure and executive capacity, and in collaboration with the relevant agencies at the State and Local Government levels, play the role of promoter, facilitator and coordinator of all SME policies of government.

(iii) Strengthen the Bank of Industry and other such special purpose finance institutions NEXIM, NARCDB, etc to perform their statutory roles (especially the provision of concessional loans, credit guarantee schemes) and enlarge scope to include large manufacturing companies

(iv) Strengthening the legal and institutional framework for the operation of micro finance institutions including streamlining of the operational guidelines and tax incentives for SMEs. This will include explicit recognition of the informal sector and the resolution of the constraints to implementation of the SMIEIS and design of special incentives targeted at investors who would wholly specialize in exporting to foreign markets.

(v) Review and implement a codified tax and incentives structure reform (including providing for necessary trade-offs) that supports an export oriented manufacturing sector and encourages large businesses to foster growth of SMEs in their value and supply chain.

(iv) Provide targeted incentives (like tax deductibility) for science, technology, and research and development spending.

(v) Coordinate and Facilitate, in collaboration with the relevant agencies of the other tiers of government, the implementation of an effective competitive industrialization strategy

(vi) Promotion of joint ventures and provision of incentives to facilitate flow of FDI in partnership with existing SMEs

(vii) Implementation of a Government procurement policy that patronizes locally produced goods and services, especially of SMEs

(viii) Promote the production of quality goods and services in Nigeria to facilitate a competitive export oriented manufacturing sector”.

Oil and Gas

22. On pages 86-88, the “strategies” for the oil and gas sector are set out as:

“Strategies”

Design and facilitate, in collaboration with the private sector, the implementation of a national oil and gas policy as well as a national gas grid system

Education

23. On pages 101-102, the “strategies” for the education sector are set out as:

“F. Specific Sectoral Strategies

(i) Education

Under NEEDS, education (especially basic education) is considered the key bridge to the future. Half of Nigeria’s population are children. Thus, education is a key instrument to empower the children to take charge of their lives in the future. In this regard, the strategy will aim at the empowerment of the citizenry to acquire skills and knowledge that would prepare them for the world of work. In order to achieve this, it will address the following crucial issues:

University and Tertiary Institutions:

Under NEEDS, government recognizes the critical importance of Universities and tertiary institutions for high quality manpower development, especially in the context of increasingly technologically driven world economy. Government also recognizes the challenges facing these institutions which range from inadequate funding and facilities, some curricula that are illstructured to meet the challenges of national need, inadequate and inappropriate staffing (especially at the lecturership cadres), cultism and lower moral and academic standards among students. Currently, higher institutions in Nigeria depend almost exclusively on subventions from government. The bulk of the Federal Government spending on education goes to the tertiary institutions, while state governments spend at least 20 percent of their budget on education--- mostly primary and secondary education. Almost total dependence on the Government for funding higher education is neither practical nor sustainable. There is therefore a need for fundamental reforms of the higher education system in Nigeria. The strategy for reforms include: