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So,
What's Next?
By
Reuben Abati
culled from GUARDIAN, May 19,
2006
Now that the third term issue has
been laid to rest, can we move on with Nigeria? Our collective engagement
with the politics of tenure extension and constitutional amendment drew
attention away from other equally important issues which may affect the
future of Nigeria as much as third term.
The on-going construction of
the event in terms of victory and defeat would seem to reduce it to a
commentary on personalities: heroes and villains. The Sun published a
rather intriguing headline- "R. I. P" (The Sun, May 17). The Comet wrote
a declamatory front-page editorial tilted "Third Term: the collapse of a
gamble"(The Comet, May 18). Nigerians have been busy exchanging very
creative text messages. But whereas these may serve psychological
purposes, and provide instant entertainment, we should remain focussed
on the future of our country, and use the opportunity to direct
attention not only to melodrama but to a deeper reflection on the cost
and implications of an abstruse competition for power.
This is not to underplay
the importance of some of the lessons that have been learnt from the
events of the past few weeks, and it may be necessary to outline
these. The point has been well made for example that Nigeria is
bigger than any and all individuals. This message is useful to all
men of power in general. There are too many conquistadors in low and
high places who suffer from the "third term" syndrome, slaves of
power who would attempt anything to hold on to advantages. The
limits of party supremacy, sycophancy, obstinacy and civilian
dictatorship have also been exposed. That message should be useful
to those in the corridors of power who provide false information,
make wrong choices, adopt tactics of deception and by so doing, help
to create an environment around the man of power that facilitates a
resort to delusions of grandeur.
The value of morality
in politics has also been underscored. The will of the majority,
the sub-text of democracy has been re-affirmed. The people,
supported by the media have shown a determination to defend
their democracy and take their destiny and that of their country
in their hands. By standing up, parliament has rediscovered its
potential. There have been lessons as well about power,
leadership and character; in all, this has been a useful
expiatory process and a significant moment. But can we raise the
tenor of public discourse above mere triumphalism to remind
ourselves of the battles that lie ahead?
The first is the
battle of succession, which to state the obvious, has begun.
In the face of the "body language" from the Presidency about
the plans of the Obasanjo administration to remain in power
beyond May 2007, groups and persons who were interested in
political office including those who had already expressed
such interest publicly had to withdraw into their shells. It
became expedient to hide any form of political ambition lest
the office-seeker stepped on sensitive toes. Potential
political candidates had to opt for discretion when it
became clear that any keen interest in the Presidency in
2007 could attract an invitation from the security agencies.
Conversations about personal ambitions had to be conducted
in hushed tones. Nobody wanted to be seen as being disloyal
to the President, the party or certain powerful Godfathers
who wielded the powers of life and death in the public
arena.
The
uncertainty that subsequently arose from the restraint
of the political elite helped to strengthen the
assumption that there is no person in Nigeria who is
good enough to succeed President Obasanjo. Now that the
outcome of the deliberations in the National Assembly
has laid that assumption to rest, Nigerians must now
embark on the task of identifying candidates for the
elections in 2007. Interested persons must step forward
and present themselves to the people. Such candidates
must be examined and discussed, and if they include the
present set of self-proclaimed beneficiaries of the
abortion of the third term agenda, those persons must be
told that they cannot take anything for granted.
Nigerians
must resolve that only persons who are prepared to
prove their worth will be allowed in public office
in 2007. To achieve that, public discourse must
target the country's leadership creation and
recruitment process. One of the major omissions in
our politics is the readiness with which men and
women of unknown worth find their ways to positions
of authority. In seven years of civilian rule, we
have seen that the people have a great
responsibility in appointing their own leaders, lest
they vote into power those persons who may end up
misrepresenting them.
The
Presidency is particularly important. It is a
very powerful office. Where should the next
President come from? Who will that person be?
What kind of leader do Nigerians want? What do
we want that leader to do when eventually he
gets into office? Certain persons are already
proclaiming themselves President on the pages of
newspapers. They are already riding on the
populism of the anti-third term wave to claim
advantages and favour. One or two fellows have
even indulged in the easy farce of delivering
"state of the nation" addresses on third term!
Nigerians should know better. The scrutiny of
the political elite that has now begun must be
sustained. The Presidency cannot and should not
be handed over cheaply to anyone whose only
claim to relevance is that he or she (or they)
opposed third term.
There is also the battle of Constitutional
amendment: This is an issue to which
Nigerians would still have to return. It is
an unresolved aspect of our politics that
remains central to the future that we speak
of. It is really a pity that the third term
controversy defeated the original goal of
amending the1999 Constitution. The amendment
process was originally flawed in design and
execution. But a richer and broader debate
could have provided Nigerians an opportunity
for forging a consensus of sorts on such
details as fiscal federalism, the creation
of states, the electoral process,
institutions, immunity for public officials
and so on. To arrive at those 115 issues
listed for amendment in the 1999
Constitution, so much money was spent, time
as well, but all that has now been wasted
simply because one issue about power and
ambition became the main substance. We must
remind ourselves that we have in the end
postponed the evil day. With the
Constitution Amendment Bill thrown out and
killed by parliament, the task for amending
the 1999 Constitution would have to be
undertaken by a future government. When that
moment comes, we would have to go over the
process all over again. And this is one
point about Nigeria: our politics is
necessarily wasteful because it is not
driven by ideas. Those who want fiscal
federalism, or more states, or internal
sovereignty, or a re-examination of
citizenship would be disappointed that their
fears and concerns have not yet been
addressed.
The third area of concern is the
electoral framework. There is so much
that has been left undone because
virtually everyone was fixated on third
term. All of a sudden, Nigerians now
have to prepare for the next elections,
and both the parties and the candidates
are at best in a great state of
confusion. We have not spent enough time
to scrutinize the electoral law as
proposed; there are persons going about
proclaiming interest in 2007 who do not
even know what the relevant law says
about elections, campaign funding, INEC
and candidacy.
The danger is that history is about
to repeat itself. INEC has been
insisting on an electronic voting
system that nobody knows anything
about. The political parties are yet
to organise their affairs
internally. This is a comment on the
state of our political parties.
Elsewhere, political parties are
continuously in existence as
functional civil society units,
promoting ideas and engaging
society. Here, political parties
except when they are in power go
into a state of suspended animation
as soon as election ends, to be
re-awakened whenever it is election
season again. The ones that are in
power are too pre-occupied with
booty-sharing to organise themselves
properly.
Beyond the parties, critical
institutions such as INEC and
the police also need enough time
to prepare for the 2007
elections. They have less than a
year to do so. There will be
challenges of logistics and
funding. The Obasanjo government
has a critical role to play in
this respect. It is important
therefore that government moves
quickly beyond the hurt of the
third term affair. The President
owes Nigerians an obligation to
organise free, fair and
successful elections in 2007.
If he does so, it would be
the first time that a
civilian to civilian
transition would be
successfully conducted in
Nigeria and President
Obasanjo, in spite of
present circumstances can
legitimately claim credit
for that. To get to that
point, he must act as a
statesman, not as a
commandant whose troops have
been routed in the field of
battle. In 2007, the key
battle would be how to
protect the integrity of the
vote. In virtually every
election in this country
since independence, the
voter had been discounted.
Figures are fixed and
announced and the people
merely nurse their
frustration and often
accompanying cynicism. If
the people element must be
central in 2007, then the
people themselves need to be
conscientised to realise
that the battle for
Nigeria's future has only
just begun.
There is also the need
to restore confidence in
government and politics.
The grave disadvantage
of the politics of the
moment is that public
confidence in government
and politics has been
further shaken. The
average man watching the
political arena has
suddenly been told again
that not much is
discussed by polticians
that has a lot do with
him. What has been
projected to him is that
the public arena in
Nigeria is all about the
sharing of money and
contestation for power
between opposing camps
on issues of personal
ambition. Government
nonetheless remains a
potent force in the
lives of the people. Our
democracy can only be
truly participatory if
the people develop a
sense of ownership of
government itself and of
its processes. It can
hold meaning for the
people only when the
leaders of the people
stand on a higher moral
pedestal. We must return
government to the
people, and insist that
the substance of
politics must be the
common good.
What we must fear
however is the
inevitable clash of
the political
masters. In the
struggle against
third term, key
political masters
emerged who
championed one side
of the struggle or
the other. We can
preach that they
should all eschew
bitterness, and that
the gladiators
should allow Nigeria
to move forward. But
can anyone guarantee
that these political
masters would not
soon graduate into
warlords in the
corridors of power?
Already the Chairman
of the PDP has been
raining curses on
the heads of some
people! Something
tells me that we
have not yet reached
the end of this
movie...
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