|
Nigeria
Faces The Future
By
Olusegun Alebiosu
culled from GUARDIAN, May 30,
2006
Singapore's Lee Kwan Yew in 1992
told an audience in Philippines "I do not believe that western democracy
leads to development. I believe that what a country needs to develop is
discipline more than democracy. The exuberance of democracy leads to
indiscipline and disorderly conduct which are inimical to development". This
belief transformed Singapore and reinforced the fact that 'late comers' to
development will have to adopt new structures to take account of their
existing levels of human, social, economic and political capital. The
success or failure of economic reform is not pre-ordained. It is a function
of the political competence, integrity and accountability of the regime in
power.
The idea of development as
progressive social change takes the form of demand for social
emancipation understood as the universalisation of prosperity. The
notion that progress could and should happen therefore dominates
political, economic and social life in modern world, because so many
people now believe that both individuals and societies have a right to
demand a better future.
Liberal developmental
project has been driven forward by powerful social forces whose
willingness to fight for it has turned it into something much more
than a mere aspiration. Responding to the problems posed by neo-patrimonialism
requires a sustained long-term reform of the political process. This
involves not just trying to reform political parties, but also a
political leadership that is willing to engage in difficult
political struggle against the elites and the political class.
For democracy to be
consolidated in Nigeria, there must be considerable political
crafting of democratic norms, practices and institutions. The
need to create the skills and value systems required to build
new institutions, and difficulties involved in overcoming the
resistance of those with vested interest in the patrimonial
order will ensure that the process will be a highly protracted
and contested one.
The argument for
superiority of governance is illustrated by the case of
India and the Asian tigers. India, a liberal democratic
country, between 1960 and 1987, grew at a rate of 1.9% per
capita, whereas the three democratic-authoritarian states of
Asia- South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore grew during the same
period at a rate of 6.4% per capita. Despite India's highly
educated and dedicated leaders, who are committed to the
plight of the poor and eradication of poverty, western style
democracy has not made radical changes in favour of the poor
possible.
Efforts at
land reform to benefit the poor were attempted, but
western style democratic processes enabled powerful
landed elites to ensure that land reform legislation did
not radically affect their interests up till today. It
took the election of left wing government in Venezuela
and Brazil to effect land reform in the 21st century. It
is important to note that institutions that sustain
western democracy were developed over 400years of
political and economic struggles. 'Late comers' to
development must adopt home grown institutions that
promote good governance to allow for rapid development,
if they hope to catch up with the rest of the world.
Those who
opposed tenure elongation must appreciate the
developmental challenge of Nigeria and produce an
alternative to OBJ. The candidate must be
detribalised, committed to the state, have enormous
external economic, political and social capital, as
well as internal political and economic legitimacy
to manage complex change and modern institutions.
S/He must be EFCC free . S/He must have the ability
to avoid 'co-ordination failure' and
'time-inconsistency problem', and also have
'encompassing ' interest in the economy . Nigerians
are also expecting the candidate to at least have a
University degree. While not limiting the capacity
of other members of the economic team as successor
to Obasanjo, it is clear that there are many
economic, political and social issues that will
consume them, including legitimacy and goodwill
within the ruling party.
A new
government in 2007 will not be able to continue
with the speed and commitment of the present
government , because of the issue of second term
and 'settlement ' of interest groups that might
have contributed to its victory. This will
increase corruption and policy reversals at the
expense of the populace who are to benefit from
long term economic policies. Besides, the party
might not have majority in National Assembly,
and this will make changes much more difficult.
Any meaningful reform will therefore wait till
2011 or 2015 as the case may be, provided also
that they are not hijacked by the corrupt
element in the patrimonial state.
It is also difficult to conceive how Nigeria
will be peacefully governed without
additional state for the South East
geopolitical zone, removal of criminal
immunity, the increased derivation issue and
the Niger Delta development question, which
are all part of the constitutional amendment
bill that was defeated by politics of
retrogression. Where politicians and elites
exploit through the power of the state,
constitutional reform must limit it.
Constitutional amendment will have to tackle
the issue of peoples vanishing benefits
through removal of criminal immunity to
ensure that funds are not Alameiseghalised
or Dariyelised.
Obasanjo has been struggling to overcome
those misfits who came to power in 1999
and 2003 respectively, and the
difficulty of the process is
demonstrated by the political games
being played by the political class.
This has made it difficult to save
Nigeria without a difficult fight. It is
important that the bill on criminal
immunity, creation of state for the
South East geopolitical zone as well as
increased derivation for Niger Delta be
introduced and passed without delay.
This is necessary to avoid singing dirge
to third term as well as singing dirge
to development, good governance and
perhaps Nigeria itself.
Those who advocate "Super na•ve
model" of governance seems not to
appreciate the fact that leadership
is not about commonality of purpose,
but advancing the goal of the state;
of progressive social change. Power
may be more or less legitimate, and
it may be used positively as an
incentive or negatively as
punishment or threat of punishment,
to navigate the ship of the state to
safety. Political disloyalty brings
about disorderliness and will have
to be tackled to guarantee
disciplined political leadership.
Political parties are
institutions for leadership
building, and its members and
leaders must exhibit leadership
qualities including high level
of discipline. Political parties
that can not discipline their
members have no basis governing
Nigeria. This is because, the
quality of leadership produced
in such weak institutions will
have implications for the value
system of the country. For PDP
to remain a respected and
trusted political party, the
months ahead should demonstrate
to the National Assembly members
that they won election as PDP
and not in their personal
capacities, and have lost
opportunity to guarantee Nigeria
economic transformation,
together with a chance to save
themselves and their political
career.
Poverty and unemployment
knows no religion or tribe
.Thesis of ethnic and
religious frustration has no
credence in addressing the
issue of poverty and
deprivation in Nigeria. The
answer to Poverty is not
western democracy or
religious representation,
but good governance.
Political stability is a
product of economic
stability and not ethnic or
religious representation.
Civil wars occur in poor
countries and none in the
last 30years in any of the
rich countries. The only
security against the
breakdown of Nigeria now or
in the future is economic
freedom. That is the more
reason why Nigerians should
demand accountability from
the political class if we
all wish to escape poverty
and the coming economic
anarchy.
The demography of
Nigeria coupled with
dangerous politics of
stagnation played
against additional term
or better described as
'developmental term' is
an invitation to
economic and social
anarchy. 40% of
Nigerians (60million)
are aged 15 and
below(Using School
enrolment as proxy). In
the next 20 years,
people who are aged 5
and above as at today
will be in the labour
market looking for job
that nobody is thinking
of creating except that
they want change of
government, and power.
As at today, criminality
has gotten to a level
where policemen can no
longer confront armed
robbers except through
armoured cars.
If we fail to take
rational decision of
sustaining the
current economic and
social reforms, and
secure economic
growth that create
jobs, then we should
be prepared to face
the social and
economic
consequences, with
revolution not ruled
out. The politicians
who played the
dangerous game
against
'developmental term'
should be prepared
to organise bullet
proof cars and
houses, helicopter
and perhaps foreign
private security men
to protect them.
They should as well
steal enough to buy
them armoured cars,
as the current
police protection
might have gone with
their transient
position. This is
because the armed
robbers who have
overcome police
guns, might also
acquire armoured
cars and visit them
in their retirement.
The time to avoid
the coming anarchy
is now and it is not
too late to have a
rethink.
Alebiosu
is with
the
Development
Studies
Institute,
London
School
of
Economics
and
Political
Science
|
